IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Saint Joseph's
Atlantic 10
2018-19

Overall
Predictive Rating	+4.0	#106
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	74.5	#58
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+0.6	#147

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+3.4	#73

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.1%	0.5%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.3%	0.5%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.8%	0.5%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	14.7%	18.8%	8.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	6.3%	8.7%	2.7%
Average Seed	11.1	10.8	12.1

.500 or above	60.1%	70.4%	44.0%
.500 or above in Conference	68.0%	74.1%	58.3%
Conference Champion	12.5%	15.8%	7.2%
Last Place in Conference	3.2%	2.2%	4.9%

First Four	2.6%	3.2%	1.7%
First Round	13.3%	16.9%	7.7%
Second Round	4.4%	6.0%	1.9%
Sweet Sixteen	1.3%	1.8%	0.5%
Elite Eight	0.5%	0.7%	0.1%
Final Four	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Old Dominion (Home) - 61.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0.2 - 1.7	0.2 - 1.7
Quad 1b	0.6 - 1.9	0.8 - 3.6
Quad 2	2.2 - 3.9	3.0 - 7.5
Quad 3	6.3 - 5.0	9.3 - 12.5
Quad 4	7.4 - 1.8	16.7 - 14.3

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 09, 2018	102	Old Dominion	L	66-67	61%
Nov 12, 2018	183	Monmouth	W	77-72	77%
Nov 15, 2018	115	Wake Forest	W	76-75	51%
Nov 16, 2018	55	Central Florida	L	64-69	33%
Nov 18, 2018	11	West Virginia	L	69-80	16%
Nov 24, 2018	164	@ William & Mary	W	81-77	54%
Nov 28, 2018	181	Illinois-Chicago	W	78-73	75%
Dec 01, 2018	72	Temple	L	71-74	49%
Dec 05, 2018	145	@ Princeton	W	71-68	49%
Dec 08, 2018	8	@ Villanova	L	69-82	9%
Dec 22, 2018	67	Loyola Chicago	L	68-72	46%
Dec 29, 2018	215	Wagner	W	74-67	81%
Jan 03, 2019	129	George Mason	W	75-74	64%
Jan 06, 2019	208	George Washington	W	73-66	81%
Jan 09, 2019	119	@ St. Bonaventure	W	74-73	42%
Jan 12, 2019	182	@ Duquesne	W	74-69	57%
Jan 15, 2019	88	Davidson	L	70-71	56%
Jan 18, 2019	71	@ Saint Louis	L	67-70	30%
Jan 23, 2019	130	Richmond	W	75-74	64%
Jan 26, 2019	125	Penn	W	73-72	65%
Jan 29, 2019	107	@ Dayton	W	73-72	40%
Feb 02, 2019	154	Massachusetts	W	74-71	70%
Feb 05, 2019	166	@ La Salle	W	76-72	54%
Feb 08, 2019	71	Saint Louis	L	67-70	50%
Feb 12, 2019	119	St. Bonaventure	W	74-73	62%
Feb 15, 2019	88	@ Davidson	L	70-71	35%
Feb 23, 2019	154	@ Massachusetts	W	74-71	52%
Feb 27, 2019	267	@ Fordham	W	73-63	72%
Mar 02, 2019	166	La Salle	W	76-72	72%
Mar 05, 2019	103	Rhode Island	L	72-73	59%
Mar 08, 2019	127	@ Virginia Commonwealth	W	76-75	45%
Projected Record						16.7 - 14.3	10.0 - 8.0

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.2	1.7	2.9	3.7	2.6	1.1	0.3		12.5	1st
2nd												0.3	1.7	4.0	3.1	1.0	0.1	0.0			10.2	2nd
3rd											0.2	2.1	4.0	3.0	0.7	0.0					10.0	3rd
4th										0.1	1.3	4.1	3.0	0.6	0.0						9.1	4th
5th									0.0	0.6	3.9	3.8	0.7	0.0							9.0	5th
6th								0.0	0.3	2.7	4.0	1.0	0.0	0.0							8.1	6th
7th								0.1	1.7	4.1	1.6	0.2	0.0								7.7	7th
8th							0.0	0.9	3.5	2.7	0.3										7.4	8th
9th						0.0	0.5	2.5	2.9	0.6	0.0										6.4	9th
10th					0.0	0.3	1.6	3.0	0.7	0.0											5.6	10th
11th					0.2	1.2	2.6	1.2	0.0												5.3	11th
12th			0.0	0.1	0.8	1.6	1.2	0.2	0.0												3.9	12th
13th		0.0	0.2	0.7	1.3	0.9	0.2	0.0													3.3	13th
14th	0.0	0.2	0.5	0.6	0.2	0.1	0.0														1.6	14th

Total	0.0	0.2	0.7	1.5	2.5	4.0	6.2	7.9	9.1	10.8	11.2	11.6	9.7	9.3	6.6	4.7	2.7	1.1	0.3			Total

Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.3		0.3
17-1	99.9%	1.1		1.1	0.0
16-2	95.4%	2.6		2.1	0.5	0.0
15-3	78.2%	3.7		2.4	1.1	0.2
14-4	43.4%	2.9		1.3	1.2	0.4	0.0	0.0
13-5	17.8%	1.7		0.3	0.7	0.4	0.3	0.0
12-6	2.6%	0.2		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.0
11-7	0.1%	0.0					0.0	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	12.5%	12.5		7.5	3.5	1.1	0.3	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.3%		89.3%	34.2%	55.1%	5.6		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0					0.0		83.7%
17-1	1.1%		86.0%	41.4%	44.5%	7.6		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.1					0.2		76.0%
16-2	2.7%		72.6%	23.3%	49.4%	9.2		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.4	0.3	0.5	0.2	0.0	0.0			0.7		64.3%
15-3	4.7%		59.3%	28.6%	30.7%	10.4					0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.5	0.5	0.8	0.5	0.1	0.0			1.9		43.0%
14-4	6.6%		38.9%	20.3%	18.6%	11.1						0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.4	0.8	0.8	0.2	0.1	0.0		4.0		23.4%
13-5	9.3%		23.1%	14.6%	8.4%	11.8								0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.6	0.8	0.3	0.1	0.1		7.2		9.9%
12-6	9.7%		14.0%	11.9%	2.1%	12.5										0.0	0.0	0.2	0.5	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0	8.3		2.4%
11-7	11.6%		9.5%	8.9%	0.6%	13.2											0.0	0.0	0.2	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0	10.5		0.7%
10-8	11.2%		6.5%	6.5%	0.0%	13.8												0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.1	10.5		0.0%
9-9	10.8%		3.5%	3.5%		14.0													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	10.4
8-10	9.1%		2.3%	2.3%		15.3													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	8.9
7-11	7.9%		1.6%	1.6%		15.6														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	7.7
6-12	6.2%		1.3%	1.3%		15.1													0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	6.1
5-13	4.0%		1.2%	1.2%		15.1														0.0		0.0	0.0	4.0
4-14	2.5%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	2.5
3-15	1.5%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	1.5
2-16	0.7%																							0.7
1-17	0.2%																							0.2
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		14.7%	9.0%	5.7%	11.1		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.5	0.7	1.3	1.5	3.0	3.3	1.7	1.1	0.6	0.4	85.3		6.3%